Osama in Iran?
Pennsylvania Congressman Curt Weldon appeared on Meet the Press yesterday with a lot of accusations against a lot of people and hyping his recent book. The American Prospect has already discredited a lot of Weldon's allegations. I found intriguing one thing in particular that he said: that Osama Bin Laden was in Iran.
This is a factual allegation, and right now I don't have any authority as to this one way or the other. It's certainly consistent with a long-time effort to link Al-Qaeda to Iran by a lot of hawkish axis-of-evil-citing types. But by everything I've read about Al-Qaeda and Iran, the effort strikes me as complete nonsense.
Al-Qaeda is an extremist Sunni organization, taking its cues from the Wahhabi movement in Sunnism. Wahhabism was first inspired by Wahab, who despaired at seeing people in the Arabian peninsula, the "Land Of the Two Holy Places", continuing to worship local shrines in opposition to the Muslim commandment that there is no god but Allah. Smashing up idols and icons was a big obsession of Wahab and his followers.
Shi'ism is filled with local shrines (in places like Fallujah) and Shi'a believe that there were twelve imams after Mohamed, which violates the Wahhabi belief that Mohamed was the last prophet of Allah (after a series including Abraham, Moses, and Jesus, among others). Not only is the Iranian government a theocratic Shi'a state, but it's something of an extremist Shi'a state.
So what would a militant extremist Sunni movement have in common with a militant extremist Shi'a state? Why is it that they would be working together except in the fantiasies of neoconservatives who can't distinguish one Muslim from another?
I suppose you could argue that both are anti-American and that they would be willing to set aside their differences for a common anti-American cause. But this is rank speculation, and it's contradicted by events in the interim. Anti-Americanism in Iran is certainly nothing new; it dates back to the CIA's overthrow of Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohamed Mossadeq in 1954 and was the animating feature of the revolution against Shah Pahlavi in 1979. Yet Iran was one of the countries supporting the Northern Alliance against the Taliban. The Taliban is cut from the same crazy Wahhabist cloth as Al-Qaeda, of course, and was accordingly mistreating Afghanistan's Shi'ites. Why Iran would try to overthrow the Taliban one year and support its client Osama Bin Laden the next has never been explained to me with anything more than conjecture.
Moreover, Osama Bin Laden's biggest concern, reportedly, is the cleansing of the Arabian Peninsula of "idolators". The initial motivation for his jihad was the stationing of non-Muslim American troops in Saudi Arabia after Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait. Eastern Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf states, have substantial Shi'a populations, who Osama would presumably like to convert or kill. Meanwhile, Iran has been jockeying to support Shi'a populations in the Gulf States for some time -- and indeed concerns about counterbalancing Iran's revolutionary agitation are what led Gulf States to support Saddam Hussein in his war against Iran throughout the '80s before he ruined everything by invading Kuwait.
So, again, why would the two most extreme supporters of opposite agendas about the Gulf's Shi'ites have anything to do with each other?
Iran does support terror organizations in Israel and the Occupied Territories. Israel and its supporters saw September 11 as an opportunity to try to link the various terror organizations there (Hezbollah, the Al-Aqsa Brigades, even the PLO) with Al-Qaeda and the U.S.'s interest therein. (There may be a link between Hamas and Al-Qaeda, but I'm not sure. I wouldn't be surprised). Iran supports Hezbollah. Hezbollah are terrorists. Al-Qaeda are terrorists. A syllogism linking Al-Qaeda to Iran as such won't work, but neoconservatives strive to fill in the blanks anyway. (Much like they tried to link September 11 to Iraq).
Back to Curt Weldon. His source is apparently someone from the regime of the deposed Shah of Iran, who would have an obvious incentive to delegitimize the government of Iran. Iran's nuclear proliferation, its support for terrorists, and its theocracy are reasons to confront it as may be appropriate. But the case for linkage with Al-Qaeda hasn't been made and is absurd based on the history. Different foreign policy situations demand different approaches, and lumping Iran in with Al-Qaeda conceals more than it reveals.
This is a factual allegation, and right now I don't have any authority as to this one way or the other. It's certainly consistent with a long-time effort to link Al-Qaeda to Iran by a lot of hawkish axis-of-evil-citing types. But by everything I've read about Al-Qaeda and Iran, the effort strikes me as complete nonsense.
Al-Qaeda is an extremist Sunni organization, taking its cues from the Wahhabi movement in Sunnism. Wahhabism was first inspired by Wahab, who despaired at seeing people in the Arabian peninsula, the "Land Of the Two Holy Places", continuing to worship local shrines in opposition to the Muslim commandment that there is no god but Allah. Smashing up idols and icons was a big obsession of Wahab and his followers.
Shi'ism is filled with local shrines (in places like Fallujah) and Shi'a believe that there were twelve imams after Mohamed, which violates the Wahhabi belief that Mohamed was the last prophet of Allah (after a series including Abraham, Moses, and Jesus, among others). Not only is the Iranian government a theocratic Shi'a state, but it's something of an extremist Shi'a state.
So what would a militant extremist Sunni movement have in common with a militant extremist Shi'a state? Why is it that they would be working together except in the fantiasies of neoconservatives who can't distinguish one Muslim from another?
I suppose you could argue that both are anti-American and that they would be willing to set aside their differences for a common anti-American cause. But this is rank speculation, and it's contradicted by events in the interim. Anti-Americanism in Iran is certainly nothing new; it dates back to the CIA's overthrow of Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohamed Mossadeq in 1954 and was the animating feature of the revolution against Shah Pahlavi in 1979. Yet Iran was one of the countries supporting the Northern Alliance against the Taliban. The Taliban is cut from the same crazy Wahhabist cloth as Al-Qaeda, of course, and was accordingly mistreating Afghanistan's Shi'ites. Why Iran would try to overthrow the Taliban one year and support its client Osama Bin Laden the next has never been explained to me with anything more than conjecture.
Moreover, Osama Bin Laden's biggest concern, reportedly, is the cleansing of the Arabian Peninsula of "idolators". The initial motivation for his jihad was the stationing of non-Muslim American troops in Saudi Arabia after Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait. Eastern Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf states, have substantial Shi'a populations, who Osama would presumably like to convert or kill. Meanwhile, Iran has been jockeying to support Shi'a populations in the Gulf States for some time -- and indeed concerns about counterbalancing Iran's revolutionary agitation are what led Gulf States to support Saddam Hussein in his war against Iran throughout the '80s before he ruined everything by invading Kuwait.
So, again, why would the two most extreme supporters of opposite agendas about the Gulf's Shi'ites have anything to do with each other?
Iran does support terror organizations in Israel and the Occupied Territories. Israel and its supporters saw September 11 as an opportunity to try to link the various terror organizations there (Hezbollah, the Al-Aqsa Brigades, even the PLO) with Al-Qaeda and the U.S.'s interest therein. (There may be a link between Hamas and Al-Qaeda, but I'm not sure. I wouldn't be surprised). Iran supports Hezbollah. Hezbollah are terrorists. Al-Qaeda are terrorists. A syllogism linking Al-Qaeda to Iran as such won't work, but neoconservatives strive to fill in the blanks anyway. (Much like they tried to link September 11 to Iraq).
Back to Curt Weldon. His source is apparently someone from the regime of the deposed Shah of Iran, who would have an obvious incentive to delegitimize the government of Iran. Iran's nuclear proliferation, its support for terrorists, and its theocracy are reasons to confront it as may be appropriate. But the case for linkage with Al-Qaeda hasn't been made and is absurd based on the history. Different foreign policy situations demand different approaches, and lumping Iran in with Al-Qaeda conceals more than it reveals.
posted by honestpartisan | 1:19 PM
3 Comments:
That's all fine and good, but can't you back up your opinions with any facts?
I don't have the source right now, but I believe that there have been confirmed instances of Iran harboring other Al-Qaida fugatives since the invasion of Afghanistan, although none as prominent as Bin Laden.
Beyond that of course, there would certainly be the possibility of Bin Laden being in Iran without the regimes approval. Iran is not a homogeneous ethnic population, and there are various tribes and ethnicities there that are more sympathetic to Bin Laden's goals. There is also a large smuggling network in Iran, that has historically been used by Al-Qaida.
It is also documented (again, I don't have the source handy) that the Iranian regime has employed foreign thugs, quite possibly Al-Qaida terrorists, more likely Hezbollah terrorists, as a special force to keep the population under control and to quash any protests. These are very similar in concept to the Fedayeen Saddam, and the entire point of them from the Regimes view is that they do not (unlike the army) feel a close connection to the people of Iran and will not hesitate to act harshly against them. In return, these thugs recieve santuary and money.
Iran's support of the Northern Alliance had much more to do with countering Pakistan's support for the Taliban than any ideological differences with either the Taliban or Al-Qaida.
Nations tend to be motivated by interests, far more than ideology. Just as America found it in it's interests (mistaken in hindsight) to support Saddam in the 80s, there are numerous reasons for Iran to support Al-Qaida now. Even the Iran-Iraq war was motivated by desire for control over the Shat Al-Arab rather than ideological differences.
I don't know that bin Laden is in Iran, but he has to be somewhere, and Iran is not necessarily more hostile than his other choices.
If Osama Bin Laden is in Iran without the government's knowledge, then they're not culpable for it. The implication is usually made that Iran is somehow complicit with Al-Qaeda despite their natural reasons not to cooperate.
Part of your response is to cite a classic proposition of the realism school of foreign policy theory: that nations don't have permanent friends, just permanent interests. I suppose that it's possible that the jihad-crazed may coolly make calculated foreign policy judgments, but I tend to doubt it and I think that the burden is on those who claim that Iran has something to do with Al-Qaeda.
Iran is a heterogenous country, but I don't know which constituent part of Iran would be sympathetic to Al-Qaeda. The bulk of the country are Shi'ite Persians, an increasing number of whom are unsympathetic with the regime's theocratic bent and a more conservative wing whose affinity for militant Shi'ism makes me think it is unlikely. Smaller minorities in Iran include Jews, Ba'hai, Kurds, and Christians (Chaldeans), none of whom strike me as likely candidates to be Al-Qaeda sympathizers, with the possible exception of an Arabic-speaking region bordering on Iraq called Khuzistan.
I've read a lot about Iran's support for Hezbollah, although I was always under the impression that was in Lebanon and the Occupied Territories. I've never read about Iran using such groups for internal control of dissidents -- they already have shock troops for that, and I don't see why they would use Al-Qaeda for such a purpose.
Even under the coldest, most steely-eyed self-interest realist Morgenthau-ian perspective, it doesn't make sense for Iran to use Al-Qaeda for these purposes; they're natural enemies
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